Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5092

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.591). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5091, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5092
    21 Oct 2026, 07:50 UTC

    SERPINA3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSERPINA3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered03d46814c2905e03

    discovery-0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.591)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    501caf6da4df24885a5406c5…
    follows d0a86a36b17a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5092: SERPINA3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.10, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SERPINA3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.