Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5091

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.947). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5090, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5091
    21 Oct 2026, 07:50 UTC

    SERPINA3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSERPINA3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4b8c4b24f5762a16

    discovery+0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    replication+0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.947)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d0a86a36b17a735042394fef…
    follows 24ba1915effb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5091: SERPINA3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.225, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.22 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SERPINA3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.