Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5031

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.74 p 0.022; held-out -0.35 p 0.361). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5030, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5031
    21 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC

    LGI1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionLGI1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9b0bf9ee42909222

    discovery-0.74 p=0.022 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.74 p 0.022; held-out -0.35 p 0.361)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    8013502710ce880953fd310c…
    follows 58dd0ff5e7ec…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5031: LGI1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to +0.00. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LGI1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.