Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4999

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.341). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4998, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4999
    21 Oct 2026, 05:46 UTC

    VIM

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVIM in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredffa862516921305c

    discovery-0.36 p=0.341 n=9

    replication+0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.341)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    46f64de89ed1f84a0d58fb5a…
    follows 58dacb587bd6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4999: VIM in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18) vs +0.19 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VIM in dopamine neurons.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.