Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4880

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4879, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4880
    21 Oct 2026, 03:06 UTC

    MOG

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMOG in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2fa2bdf302ef5d3d

    discovery+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7ca42ef918b16369f93f6e47…
    follows ad5da66ffcf1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4880: MOG in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MOG in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.