Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4879

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4878, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4879
    21 Oct 2026, 03:06 UTC

    MOG

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMOG in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered59eb7ceb6ad622ec

    discovery+0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ad5da66ffcf142682a8c6c2c…
    follows 88927e47c672…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4879: MOG in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MOG in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.