Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4869

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.472). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4868, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4869
    21 Oct 2026, 02:53 UTC

    AIRE

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAIRE in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3785d069c24f3015

    discovery-0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    replication-0.62 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.472)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    87b986323887e1beda529432…
    follows 1bed4a14d1a0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4869: AIRE in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.074, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18) vs -0.43 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AIRE in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up AIRE · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.38 p 0.183 (needs p < 4.0e-4)