Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4814

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4813, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4814
    21 Oct 2026, 02:22 UTC

    NT5E

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNT5E in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered30dfff09492d4f77

    discovery+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6b2330db5dd9191bc71ab3a8…
    follows 8572cc5e823d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4814: NT5E in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.12, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NT5E in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.