Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4719

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4718, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4719
    20 Oct 2026, 23:57 UTC

    KCNC3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKCNC3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9c93f9e273940528

    discovery-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6fc21ce00bcc1afc11c3c1e6…
    follows 7d2219626d96…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4719: KCNC3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.036, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0080, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.63 to -0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNC3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.