Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4718

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.027; held-out +0.05 p 0.891). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4717, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4718
    20 Oct 2026, 23:57 UTC

    KCNC3

    microglia, braak

    predictionKCNC3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6f004306e7c0ac87

    discovery-0.72 p=0.027 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.027; held-out +0.05 p 0.891)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    7d2219626d963b6ff65ede39…
    follows 3c363e912841…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4718: KCNC3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.052, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to +0.00. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNC3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.