Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4609

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.555). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4608, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4609
    20 Oct 2026, 21:23 UTC

    CALB2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCALB2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered93c8386027153693

    discovery-0.23 p=0.555 n=9

    replication+0.65 p=0.057 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.555)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f1c367b28b0899d7a6437a32…
    follows 96a6e7a29640…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4609: CALB2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CALB2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.