Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4530

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.348). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4529, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4530
    20 Oct 2026, 19:33 UTC

    ANKFN1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionANKFN1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede47e49b860bd0b22

    discovery+0.36 p=0.348 n=9

    replication+0.52 p=0.154 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.348)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9223a88c38991353c1a02959…
    follows 64fae76fd178…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4530: ANKFN1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18), 95% CI +0.05 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.44 to +0.58, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANKFN1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.