Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4529

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.71 p 0.032; held-out -0.36 p 0.347). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4528, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4529
    20 Oct 2026, 19:32 UTC

    ANKFN1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionANKFN1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered27a5d803d41fef0f

    discovery+0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.71 p 0.032; held-out -0.36 p 0.347)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    64fae76fd178c3a3aa63b926…
    follows 142f92bee7a8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4529: ANKFN1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANKFN1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.