Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4465

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.732). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4464, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4465
    20 Oct 2026, 18:07 UTC

    NPAS3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionNPAS3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7f1a65b894245e30

    discovery+0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.385 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.732)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    459c76ca645f47c030d3d2c3…
    follows afab17fee220…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4465: NPAS3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NPAS3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.