Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4371

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.770). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4370, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4371
    20 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC

    SLC7A7

    microglia, braak

    predictionSLC7A7 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4a65022d30813407

    discovery-0.11 p=0.770 n=9

    replication-0.45 p=0.227 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.770)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2aa4a47fdef0f9dadd2a36c7…
    follows 13c8213cf4f5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4371: SLC7A7 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC7A7 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.