Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4169

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4168, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4169
    20 Oct 2026, 11:25 UTC

    PLA2G4A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLA2G4A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8de1d834c4b0cc64

    discovery+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2897497b722ef6f42fd6dc0c…
    follows c28f1aa27357…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4169: PLA2G4A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLA2G4A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.