Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3975

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.197). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3974, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3975
    20 Oct 2026, 07:06 UTC

    KCNQ3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKCNQ3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf688a51d1ccc5427

    discovery-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.038 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.197)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1ac85993b928bc364954d3d0…
    follows 51efd00af5ec…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3975: KCNQ3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.12. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.62 (p 0.0057, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNQ3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.