Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3972

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3971, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3972
    20 Oct 2026, 07:03 UTC

    PICALM

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPICALM in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfc5ad690934a1701

    discovery+0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.489 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bb9065c8a96732f5e46d90b3…
    follows b2df9d54554a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3972: PICALM in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.08, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.62 (p 0.0057, n 18) vs -0.03 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PICALM in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PICALM · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)