Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3971

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3970, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3971
    20 Oct 2026, 07:03 UTC

    PICALM

    microglia, braak

    predictionPICALM in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb204146a7ee58575

    discovery-0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.583 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b2df9d54554a70549b0c7aba…
    follows ca09da201fd9…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3971: PICALM in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.00, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.62 (p 0.0057, n 18) vs -0.11 in microglia. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PICALM in microglia.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PICALM · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.63 p 0.026 (needs p < 5.0e-4)