Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3926

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3925, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3926
    20 Oct 2026, 06:03 UTC

    WDR45

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionWDR45 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda37928c02f94dc64

    discovery-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.143 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    88ecf05e69b59cd88155a69d…
    follows a0c5c7633209…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3926: WDR45 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.00 to +0.24, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WDR45 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.