Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3877

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.534). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3876, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3877
    20 Oct 2026, 04:59 UTC

    ARVCF

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionARVCF in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9548f2d5c8ed929c

    discovery-0.24 p=0.534 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.534)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2ceb1d7d6ea86e733c532326…
    follows c3e3b386a518…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3877: ARVCF in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARVCF in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.