Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3706

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.70 p 0.036; held-out -0.38 p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3705, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3706
    20 Oct 2026, 01:52 UTC

    PDE6G

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPDE6G in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc9f4a61e98aa9aa8

    discovery-0.70 p=0.036 n=9

    replication-0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.70 p 0.036; held-out -0.38 p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    7d99a311719206bc3de16586…
    follows 31269b65596f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3706: PDE6G in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.52 (p 0.028, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.07. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.64 to -0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDE6G in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.