Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3610

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3609, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3610
    19 Oct 2026, 23:40 UTC

    HOXA11

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHOXA11 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredef304559237febe3

    discovery-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication-0.89 p=0.0012 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d88c5565585d567dc3f18c3e…
    follows 5f022c22343e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3610: HOXA11 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.034, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.68 to -0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HOXA11 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.