Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3495

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.85 p 0.0034; held-out +0.23 p 0.549). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3494, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3495
    19 Oct 2026, 21:06 UTC

    GNAO1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGNAO1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf20970277b1d1dcc

    discovery-0.85 p=0.0034 n=9

    replication+0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.85 p 0.0034; held-out +0.23 p 0.549)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    227f11f458d2c00f0270d2e4…
    follows 1687b4034412…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3495: GNAO1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GNAO1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.