Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3479

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.133). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3478, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3479
    19 Oct 2026, 20:46 UTC

    KY

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionKY in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0b4ab7014abc9e7f

    discovery-0.54 p=0.133 n=9

    replication-0.15 p=0.701 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.133)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5cf5d6f48dabdd458f3d11f9…
    follows b1cc32a0bb01…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3479: KY in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KY in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.