Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3338

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.183). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3337, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3338
    19 Oct 2026, 17:42 UTC

    NR2F1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNR2F1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb382d0b565203765

    discovery-0.49 p=0.183 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.183)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0db476ea7159e06273fea856…
    follows 39d790a58547…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3338: NR2F1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NR2F1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.