Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3337

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.873). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3336, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3337
    19 Oct 2026, 17:41 UTC

    NR2F1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionNR2F1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc91295c9222f0528

    discovery-0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.750 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.873)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    39d790a58547277afc71db32…
    follows c362d5c2f254…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3337: NR2F1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.05, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NR2F1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.