Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3309

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.567). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3308, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3309
    19 Oct 2026, 17:06 UTC

    DAGLB

    microglia, braak

    predictionDAGLB in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9df9dc9e60b98e1e

    discovery+0.22 p=0.567 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.567)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    39de0fa747d4bd93603de5ed…
    follows 00aa44eccc2c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3309: DAGLB in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.21, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DAGLB in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.