Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3302

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.790). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3301, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3302
    19 Oct 2026, 16:57 UTC

    B3GAT1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionB3GAT1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc0376b2c2d765768

    discovery-0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.790)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0ff5fc39bf7ac5a1c346e12f…
    follows 7e2c80472535…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3302: B3GAT1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for B3GAT1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.