Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2898

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.79 p 0.011; held-out +0.15 p 0.699). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2897, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2898
    19 Oct 2026, 07:47 UTC

    DST

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDST in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2df83e5f22130358

    discovery+0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.699 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.79 p 0.011; held-out +0.15 p 0.699)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    36f61cd7855c8fd44661b687…
    follows 4fead62a903a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2898: DST in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18), 95% CI -0.07 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.62 (p 0.0062, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.34 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DST in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.