Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2864

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2863, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2864
    19 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC

    CASP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCASP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0c6bd8fa595c4686

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    704c4a83f27cc24d2baf0b1e…
    follows b63ca19d1f10…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2864: CASP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CASP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.