Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2858

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.805). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2857, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2858
    19 Oct 2026, 06:52 UTC

    ESR2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionESR2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb6a300bbde6dc73f

    discovery-0.10 p=0.805 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.498 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.805)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d37843fc38476f3acd6d3e66…
    follows c5aa3b4634fc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2858: ESR2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ESR2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.