Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2710

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.639). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2709, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2710
    19 Oct 2026, 03:28 UTC

    SYT11

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSYT11 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbfb2e4eb5ac87513

    discovery-0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    replication+0.46 p=0.212 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.639)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4c16839dd3d5ec9a072dcf64…
    follows e08ec762f8cf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2710: SYT11 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SYT11 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.