Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2622

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2621, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2622
    19 Oct 2026, 02:11 UTC

    ARX

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARX in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3e55246c04b2bd1f

    discovery-0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.912 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9a36cd41eb2c7e5a130af064…
    follows 21f17e277d07…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2622: ARX in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.11, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARX in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.