Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2605

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.121). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2604, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2605
    19 Oct 2026, 01:49 UTC

    RGS10

    microglia, braak

    predictionRGS10 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4e7e95dbdfdd8375

    discovery-0.55 p=0.121 n=9

    replication+0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.121)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d375ef26d73718cc805b183a…
    follows ee4f1e9b3d98…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2605: RGS10 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RGS10 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.