Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2589

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.588). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2588, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2589
    19 Oct 2026, 01:27 UTC

    LCN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLCN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf5867a2e72a111f3

    discovery+0.21 p=0.588 n=9

    replication-0.74 p=0.021 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.588)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3d20c58a25828ef9435507da…
    follows 215730ac72ea…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2589: LCN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LCN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.