Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2588

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.807). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2587, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2588
    19 Oct 2026, 01:24 UTC

    LEP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLEP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4042dc211487e2cf

    discovery-0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.807)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    215730ac72ea9c32fc2dbd01…
    follows 77faf8e8f060…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2588: LEP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LEP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.