Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2566

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.508). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2565, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2566
    19 Oct 2026, 00:54 UTC

    VEGFA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVEGFA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbe039f8b0858951e

    discovery-0.25 p=0.508 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.508)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0d8a8b66dc59809c17489220…
    follows 8692e2948639…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2566: VEGFA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.05, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VEGFA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.