Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2551

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.197). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2550, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2551
    19 Oct 2026, 00:34 UTC

    TOMM40

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTOMM40 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb85380ffe5b4dfe7

    discovery+0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.304 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.197)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bda987069b90e2e6a5bfeea8…
    follows d8748eae0193…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2551: TOMM40 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.04, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TOMM40 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.