Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2483

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2482, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2483
    18 Oct 2026, 23:04 UTC

    TFEB

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTFEB in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2ac7286445ef4294

    discovery-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    replication-0.60 p=0.089 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2aedbbe0baa445a6c546ac97…
    follows ba64bb26b1b4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2483: TFEB in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TFEB in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.