Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2467

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.426). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2466, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2467
    18 Oct 2026, 22:42 UTC

    ARL17B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARL17B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede924602a3cfa7053

    discovery+0.30 p=0.426 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.204 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.426)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    49fd39892ffd37f082f9c0dd…
    follows 9916f3fb215b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2467: ARL17B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.16, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARL17B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.