Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2466

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.190). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2465, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2466
    18 Oct 2026, 22:41 UTC

    ARL17B

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionARL17B in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5aff68d50f1bb681

    discovery+0.48 p=0.190 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.190)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9916f3fb215b25dc63d01817…
    follows 9040e8504a5c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2466: ARL17B in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.17, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARL17B in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.