Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2455

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.90 p 0.0011; held-out -0.12 p 0.749). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2454, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2455
    18 Oct 2026, 22:28 UTC

    S100B

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionS100B in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8ba4fd49d249896a

    discovery+0.90 p=0.0011 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.90 p 0.0011; held-out -0.12 p 0.749)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    2370e95ebdf7e0834fee8e0e…
    follows ba36852328e5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2455: S100B in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for S100B in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.