Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2413

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.749). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2412, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2413
    18 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC

    ZNF285

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF285 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3b5e9f326cf462ee

    discovery-0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.749)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1a11c35fecd1f40cff4bc8ca…
    follows 331339a6ee26…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2413: ZNF285 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF285 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.