Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2254

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2253, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2254
    18 Oct 2026, 17:47 UTC

    BDNF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBDNF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb0091ec19aeed050

    discovery+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication+0.65 p=0.059 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f93b99c0c8229df8afd17c48…
    follows edde02ccf00a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2254: BDNF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18), 95% CI -0.18 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.26 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BDNF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.