Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2242

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.306). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2241, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2242
    18 Oct 2026, 17:33 UTC

    ANTXR2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionANTXR2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb92793bcd91a196d

    discovery+0.39 p=0.306 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.306)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    db1f90152c492bf5bfeda19d…
    follows 76570d7a1eff…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2242: ANTXR2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.49 (p 0.039, n 18), 95% CI +0.03 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.42 to +0.62, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANTXR2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.