Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0222

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.981). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 221, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0222
    16 Oct 2026, 19:31 UTC

    DDX39B

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionDDX39B in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda8291338ec0db1da

    discovery-0.01 p=0.981 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.374 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.981)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9d206bdad251b3555fb6d9ef…
    follows 3ba1b4b7906a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0222: DDX39B in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DDX39B in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.