Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2173

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.199). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2172, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2173
    18 Oct 2026, 15:54 UTC

    RORA

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionRORA in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf82f2619a90bf181

    discovery+0.47 p=0.199 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.344 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.199)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d35c9bf8d28e14fb43eb1495…
    follows 5b4e9560cff9…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2173: RORA in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RORA in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.