Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2024

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.019; held-out +0.54 p 0.130). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2023, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2024
    18 Oct 2026, 12:14 UTC

    ITGA8

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionITGA8 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered04ccbb5147d015db

    discovery-0.75 p=0.019 n=9

    replication+0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.019; held-out +0.54 p 0.130)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    b21cd8eb75f8c29345d12f13…
    follows 132385e6bf8f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2024: ITGA8 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.00, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ITGA8 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.