Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1909

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1908, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1909
    18 Oct 2026, 09:26 UTC

    FBRSL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFBRSL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3dba1c6bee741b66

    discovery-0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.138 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    64833b15c342f7c095287d5a…
    follows 48c7164d5003…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1909: FBRSL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.63 (p 0.0051, n 18) vs -0.45 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FBRSL1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up FBRSL1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.32 p 0.248 (needs p < 8.1e-4)